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Thomas W Hertel

Agricultural Economics 

  • Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics
Krannert Room 647

Professor Hertel is Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, where his research focuses on the global impacts of trade, climate and environmental policies. In 2013 he was awarded the inaugural Purdue University Research and Scholarship Distinction Award.

Dr. Hertel is a Fellow, and Past-President, of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA). He is also the founder and Executive Director of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) which now encompasses more than 13,000 researchers in 160 countries around the world). This Project maintains a global economic data base and an applied general equilibrium modeling framework which are documented in the book: Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications, edited by Dr. Hertel, and published by Cambridge University Press in 1997. This book was selected as the publication of enduring quality by the AAEA in 2016.

Professor Hertel's most recent research has focused on the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies on global trade, land use and poverty. During the 2011-12 year he was on leave at Stanford University, where he was engaged in inter-disciplinary research on these topics, along with initiation of a new course on Global Change and the Challenges of Sustainably Feeding a Growing Planet.

Previously, Professor Hertel has conducted research on the impacts of multilateral trade agreements, including the linkages between global trade policies and poverty in developing countries. His book: Poverty and the WTO (co-edited with L. Alan Winters) received the AAEA Quality of Communication award. Other AAEA awards include: Distinguished Policy Contribution and Outstanding Journal Article.

Awards & Honors

(2013) Research and Scholarship Distinction Award (First Recipient). Purdue University.

(2003) Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics. Purdue University.

(2011) Past President. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA).

(2016) Publication of Enduring Quality, "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications". Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA).

(2007) Outstanding Quality of Communication Award (Editor): "Poverty and the WTO". Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA).

(2004) Distinguished Fellow of the Association. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA).

(1999) Distinguished Policy Contribution. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA).

(1994) Thesis Advisor, Outstanding M.S. Thesis Award Winner: Elena I. Ianchovichina. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA).

(1990) Quality of Communication Award Winning Book (Contributor). Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA).

(1989) Outstanding Journal Article Award, "Negotiating Reductions in Agricultural Support: Implications of Technology and Factor Mobility". American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Selected Publications

Hertel, T. W., & Baldos, U. C. (2016). Global Change and the Challenge of Sustainably Feeding a Growing Planet. New York: Springer. Retrieved from

Diffenbaugh, N. S., Hertel, T. W., Scherer, M., & Verma, M. (2012). Implications of Climate Volatility for Agricultural Commodity Markets under Alternative Energy Futures. Nature Climate Change, 2, 514–518. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1491

Hertel, T. W., Ramankutty, N., & Baldos, U. C. (2014). Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(38), 13799-13804. doi:10.1073/pnas.1403543111

Liu, J., Hertel, T. W., Taheripour, F., Zhu, T., & Ringler, C. (2014). International Trade Buffers the Impact of Future Irrigation Shortfalls. Global Environmental Change, 29, 22-31.

Hertel, T. W. (2014). Food Security Under Climate Change. Nature Climate Change, 6, 10-13. doi:10.1038/nclimate2834

Liu, J., Mooney, H., Hull, V., Davis, S. J., Gaskell, J., Hertel, T. W., . . . Li, S. (2015). Systems Integration for Global Sustainability. Science, 347(6225), 1258832. doi:10.1126/science.1258832

Hertel, T. W., Baldos, U. C., & Van der Mensbrugghe, D. Y. (2016). Predicting Long Term Food Demand, Cropland Use and Prices. Annual Review of Resource Economics.

Baldos, U. C., & Hertel, T. W. (2015). The Role of International Trade in Managing Food Security Risks from Climate Change. Food Security, 7, 275-290. Retrieved from

Steinbuks, J., & Hertel, T. W. (2014). Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma: Global Land Use in the Long Run. Environmental and Resource Economics. Retrieved from

Hertel, T. W., & Lobell, D. (2014). Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Rich and Poor Countries: Current Modeling Practice and Potential for Empirical Contributions. Energy Economics. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.014